Today’s entry: What’s the deal with all of the different death rates for the virus? Every report seems to say something different and yours has been the highest. I’ve heard it’s no worse than the flu and you’ve said it’s the worst ever. Which is it really!?
Bottom Line: Without getting too far into the numerical weeds, I’m rather certain you haven’t heard a death rate for COVID-19 that’s been as low as the common flu in the United States. Even the lowest reported death rate I've heard or seen reported, 0.7% is still a death rate that’s greater than a thousand times the death rate of the flu within the US.So, I’ll start there. By any reported measure, COVID-19's death rate is worse than any virus we’ve seen in modern medicine. As for where the varied reported rates come from...I can explain most of what I’ve found that does run counter and lower to what I’ve cited.
As of this entry, COVID-19 has been diagnosed in 56 countries. The information regarding transmission, current infections, and death rates are fluid. What you hear today could change tomorrow even when measured the same way. But then there are the different ways statistics are being reported. Many are using dated information, often relying on the latest WHO report rather than real-time information being aggregated by the WHO. The other two common reporting methods I’ve seen, involve cases only contracted outside of China and calculations that are based on the number of deaths compared to the total number of infected patients. As an analyst, I believe there’s only one accurate way to calculate death rates.
The scientific process requires controls. As I cited yesterday, there’s a chance that the virus today isn’t even exactly the same as it was when it was first discovered in China. Additionally, the only accurate/credible way to calculate death rates is to evaluate “closed cases”. How many people were diagnosed with the virus? How many recovered? How many died? That’s your death rate. You’ll get an artificially low number if you take all active cases into account. As of this entry, there are 39,530 closed cases resulting in 2,859 deaths. That’s a 7% death rate. Those are the facts. It’s a huge death rate. The good news is that it has been steadily improving. The bad news is obvious. That’s a death rate that’s still 14,000 times the standard flu.
Stories like these are especially frustrating because of the degree of seriousness but also the need for pragmatism. On one hand, if your stated goal in life today in Florida was to contract the coronavirus... You couldn’t do it. It’s not here. In other words, live your life and let the officials who’re tasked with monitoring this do their job. On the other hand, there’s a reason it’s being treated as seriously as this is worldwide. This is far more serious than the standard H1N1 flu virus. My information with this story remains the same as it does for all the content I produce. Factual and pragmatic.
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