The official start of the 2020 Presidential Election cycle starts today in Iowa. Unlike primaries, with standard voting for candidates with the results being tabulated; the Iowa Caucus features a series of meetings in which candidates, and their surrogates, attempt to make the case to the gatherings of voters. Upon the conclusion of the meetings, the votes are cast and then tabulated. Because of the methodology, caucuses can be unpredictable and often have produced surprising results. Though the surprises have been greater in the Republican races.
Among Democrats, the polling leader in Iowa the day of the caucus has a strong history of winning the state. Also, the polled support for lessor candidates is often over-sampled in advance as these would-be supporters are often wooed to support higher performing candidates. That’s where most of the volatility comes into play. As we’re readying for tonight results in the Democrats race for President here’s a breakdown of the average polling going into Iowa for Democrats compared to the actual results for the past three contested cycles.
2016: Hillary Clinton’s polling lead in Iowa the day of the Caucus's: 4%, outcome Hillary Clinton by .2% over Bernie Sanders.
2008: Barrack Obama’s polling lead in Iowa the day of the Caucus's: 1.6%. Obama’s margin of victory was 7.8% over Hillary Clinton.
2004: John Kerry’s polling lead in Iowa the day of the Caucus's: 3%. Kerry’s margin of victory over John Edwards was 5.8%.
You’ll notice that each of the three leaders in Iowa polling went on to win. That’s a key trend as we look at where we stand today. The average of current Iowa polls heading into tonight’s caucus among likely voters looks like this:
- Sanders:24%
- Biden:20%
- Buttigieg:16%
- Warren:15%
- Klobuchar:10%
History, polling, and trends are on the side of Bernie Sanders. The past three Democrat polling leaders had an average advantage of 3% heading into the caucus and won by an average of 5%. Bernie’s 4% advantage currently projects to a likely win tonight.
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