When it comes to events that haven’t yet occurred there aren’t facts to specifically consider. Instead, intelligence guided by history has led me to create in-depth research and formulas to provide you with a real-time preview of what’s likely to occur in various election cycles, especially Presidential election cycles. I provide you with that update weekly with President Trump’s re-election odds. There’s another way I occasionally like to gauge sentiment.
Talk is cheap and actions speak louder than words. Everyone has an opinion about whether President Trump should be removed and whether he should be re-elected but it’s a different ballgame when you’re literally placing bets on it. Offshore sportsbooks have been actively fielding bets on the Senate trial and the 2020 election. Based on the line, created by where gamblers to date have placed their bets, the odds that President Trump is acquitted of both articles of impeachment is 98.4% and the odds that President Trump wins re-election are 57.4%.
The money’s solidly on Trump all the way at this point, which says something given that situations for Presidents running for election don’t come much more precarious than having been impeached and with an active Senate trial. Something I found specifically interesting is the gambling odds for re-election. Using my formula based on President Trump’s status, and average approval ratings last week, I had him at 52% among all outstanding polls and 68% among likely voters. Gamblers are placing odds near the midpoint of that range.
In the meantime, if you’re a supporter of President Trump, the odds are currently with him. Anyway you choose to evaluate them.
Photo by: ALEX EDELMAN/AFP/Getty Images