The state has been playing catch up with voter registration information. Just a week ago we received the first update for Florida’s voter registration rolls since October of last year. The state has now completely caught up with voter registration reporting information through the end of 2019.
My theme for the 2020 cycle has been perception vs reality. In Florida, we’re sitting on record low unemployment at 3% statewide and a remarkable record low of 2.2% in South Florida. I’m not sure why anyone would want to go in the opposite direction but there are no shortage of candidates running that way.
I like tracking information that becomes available such as voter registration information to the state. Following the trends has proven to be instructive in recent years including understanding in part why pollsters were wrong about Florida in the 2016 and 2018 election cycles. Here’s where we stand in Florida entering the 2020 election cycle.
These are Florida voter registration changes by party year over year.
The change over the previous update was the loss of a few hundred registered Democrats as voter rolls were reconciled at year-end. We now see Democrats with their smallest advantage in voter registration in Florida's history. We’re seeing surges in NPA’s and minor parties with meaningful increases in Republican voter registration. The current breakout of registered voters looks is 36.8% for Democrats, 35.2% for Republicans, 1.1% minor and 26.8% for NPA.
Democrats held a 2.5% advantage on Election Day 2016. That’s down to a 1.6% advantage today. The party’s continued leftward bend likely is impacting would be Democrats from registering in the party.
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