The State Of The Democrat’s Race And President Trump’s Re-Election Odds

Odds are that President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. The reason? Well, 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win.

So, that becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. That 65% is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play too. Based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. I’ve tracked President Trump’s reelection odds-based on history and approval ratings. Today, 51% is based on average polling and 66% is based on likely voters. This means that President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. 

Now, the current average polling for the Democratic race with the changes since the previous update are as follows:

  • Biden:29% (+1)
  • Sanders:20% (+1)
  • Warren:15% (flat)
  • Buttigieg:8% (flat)
  • Bloomberg:6% (+1)

As we close in on actual votes being cast, the picture isn’t becoming clearer. On one hand, Joe Biden has been the front-runner from the onset of the cycle. On the other, his advantage is as small as it’s been during the cycle. Additionally, Bernie Sanders has now tied his high-water mark and might be starting to peak at the right time. Otherwise, everything behind them is relatively static and the biggest question is how big of a factor can Pete Buttigieg be in Iowa, which as a Mayor from Indiana is right up his ally, to try to create more national support for his campaign. 

Photo by: Getty Images

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