Odds are that President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. Why? Well, 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win. This becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Which don’t look now but is only a year away.
I’ve tracked President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. As of today, 60% is based on average polling and 74% based on likely voters. This means that President Trump remains the odds-on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election.
As for Democrats, the current average polling with the changes since the previous update are as follows:
- Biden:28% (-2)
- Sanders:16% (-3)
- Warren:15% (-4)
- Buttigieg: 11% (+3)
- Bloomberg:4% (+4)
It’s been one of the more interesting weeks for the prospective 2020 Democrat Presidential candidates. More candidates exited the race than entered it, including the first candidate who was a one-time viable contender in Kamala Harris. What’s odd, and this speaks to the perceived weakness of this field, is that generally by this point in the cycle your top crop of candidates start the consolidation of support of lessor candidates. Just the opposite is happening. All three top candidates have lost support over the past two weeks to lower tier candidates in the race with Pete Buttigieg essentially pulling himself into the 2nd tier with Sanders and Warren. We now also have a baseline for Michael Bloomberg in the race as he debuts with 4%, which while low, is good enough for fifth currently, as no other candidate polls above 3% with Harris now out of the race. Also, it’s worth noting that should the House impeach President Trump it will take Senators Sanders, Warren, Booker and Kolbuchar off the trail for as long as the Senate trial lasts. A Senate trial is required to take place six days per week until completed.
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