The State Of The Democratic Race & President Trump’s Re-Election Odds

The odds are in President Donald Trump's favor when it comes to the 2020 elections. Why? Well, history shows that 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win.

That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election winning. There is a clear incumbency advantage. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. As of today, 53%support President Trump based on average polling and 56% based on likely voters.

President Trump is back to being the odds on favorite to win reelection regardless of whom the Democrats nominate. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. 

As for Democrats, the current average polling with the changes since last week looks like this:

  • Biden: 27% (flat)
  • Warren: 21% (-1)
  • Sanders: 17% (flat)
  • Buttigieg: 8% (+1)
  • Harris: 5% (flat)

There wasn't much movement this week. Just a point defecting from Warren to Buttigieg, but there are a few storylines playing out. Biden has been the clear front-runner for three straight weeks after Warren caught him. That coincides with the third straight week of declines for Warren after she was ganged upon in the most recent debate. No other candidate is polling above three percent behind Harris. 

Photo by: Getty Images North America

 

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