The State Of The Democrat’s Race & President Trump’s Re-Election Odds

The odds that President Trump will be re-elected in 2020 are high. Why? Well, because 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win. 

That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. Tracking President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Today, 50% based on average polling, based on an average approval rating of 43%. As for likely voters, it's 61% and that's based on a likely voter approval rating of 47%.

It’s worth noting that Trump is still performing better at this stage of his administration than President Obama. And has consistently been the case, his performance among likely voters is stronger, and that’s reflected with President Trump still being a favorite to win based on likely voters alone. To the extent that the challenger can impact the race, that provides the road map for Democrats. Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. 

As for the Democrat's race, the current average polling with the changes since last week was:

  • Biden:27% (+1)
  • Warren:27% (+3)
  • Sanders:15% (-2)
  • Buttigieg:5% (-1)
  • Harris:4% (-1)

Elizabeth Warren has tracked down Joe Biden for front-runner status. There has been a feeling of inevitability to this for a few weeks now but we’re there. However, it's not all is looks. While Warren has caught him with her fourth straight weekly gain in an average of the polls, Biden’s up a touch this week as well. 

About a month ago you had a three-person race in the top tier with Biden as a clear front-runner and two second-tier candidates that were within striking distance if they caught momentum. Instead, what’s happened is the near-collapse of Harris and Buttigieg, who are now barely relevant, the Bern’s health problems clearly created a problem for him. The result is a horse race between Biden and Warren leaving all other candidates in the dust. Bernie remains relevant but his support might have a hard cap on it at this point based on concerns about age and health. No other candidates currently poll above 3%.

Photo by: Alex Edelman- Pool/Getty Images



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