President Trump’s Re-Election Odds 08-02

Historically, 65% of Presidents who run for re-election win. So,odds are that President Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020. That becomes the baseline for President Trump entering this cycle. The 65% is based on nearly two-thirds of all incumbent Presidents who’ve run for re-election. There are other numbers that come into play, based on a president’s approval ratings as we close in on Election Day. 

Tracking President Trump’s reelection odds-based upon history and approval ratings. Here’s where we stand as of today.

  • 53% based on average polling (based on an average approval rating of 43%)
  • 66% based on likely voters (based on a likely voter approval rating of 48%)

President Trump remains the favorite to win the 2020 Presidential Election. There are a couple of takeaways we can glean from the difference between the average of all polling compared to likely voters. President Trump’s average polling is currently below average at this point in his presidency. However, his performance among likely voters is slightly above average. As of now, he’s outperforming Presidents Clinton and Obama among likely voters at this stage in the cycle. 

Given that the odds are best for President Trump with likely voters, a Democrat who can most successfully appeal to non-likely voters would be the best opportunity for Democrats in the upcoming election. Joe Biden still leads in the polling among Democrats. Ironically, despite the hypothetical head-to-head polling, that’s meaningless at this stage in the cycle. He might represent the lowest opportunity for Democrats to recruit new voters in 2019 should he become the nominee. 

Photo by: Andrew Spear/Getty Images

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