Weekly Update: Politics and President Trump's Reelection Odds

Weekly political update – President Trump's ratings & reelection odds

Bottom Line: This is a weekly story to get a reality/temperature check regarding what's really going on with public opinion of the President and our view of the direction of the country. First here's the high point, low point and current ratings for President Trump...  

  • Trump's lowest ratings: 37% approval (8/4/17)            
  • Trump highest approval ratings: 45% approval (1/27/17)                   
  • Trump's current ratings: 43% approval

President Trump slipped a point in a week with the most approval polling to roll in since last year’s election cycle, but that far from tells the story. I’ll get to the bigger point in a moment. We’re starting to see more pollsters weigh in as they’re eager to begin polling Democrats in the primary race for President. While getting polls on the Dems, they’re also polling on the President’s approval and often hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. You’ll commonly hear how well many of the Democrats theoretically match-up against President Trump would, for example, as a result. There are two relevant points. First, no Democrat has been beaten up the way they will be by the end of a Presidential campaign. Second only one pollster, Rasmussen, has had any head-to-head polling using likely voters, and in that polling, only Biden currently showed a lead on Trump. 

It’s been the case throughout his term thus far, that the more informed and engaged someone is politically – the more likely they are to approve of President Trump. That’s certainly the case once again this week. 

  • Adult only samples averaged: 39%                    
  • Registered voters: 43%                                              
  • Likely voters: 51%         

A huge 12-point difference between your average man on the street reax vs likely voters continues to speak volumes about the informational disconnect. If he maintains 51% support with likely voters, he’d be the prohibitive favorite to win re-election. What you never hear reported are the ratings of the Democratic leaders opposing him. Let’s just say they’d need a huge push of support to simply catch President Trump’s approval ratings. Here’s the latest...  

  • Pelosi: 37% 
  • Schumer: 29%

What does that tell you about what’s really going on in this country? Pelosi is six points behind Trump and Schumer is 14 points behind the president in overall approval. Looking at the direction of the country this week...                              

Where we stood on Inauguration Day:      

  • Right Direction: 30%                                                                                                           

Today:                  

  • Right Direction: 36%                                             

That’s flat this week and we are 6% collectively more optimistic than we were during the Obama administration.

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