Q&A of the Day – About Maduro, Guaido & Venezuela
Each day I’ll feature a listener question that’s been submitted by one of these methods.
Maduro's not going to be "talked" out of office. He's going to have to be "taken out" by somebody. I don't see enough people capable of overthrowing him left in Venezuela. Introducing symbolic legislation isn't going to do it, either. If the US is serious, then they need to get "serious".
Bottom Line:This is an extremely polarizing issue among those who otherwise would like to see the same result – Maduro’s ouster. The point you’re making is logical enough. If the military’s sticking with Maduro, and that’s generally been the case thus far, it’s implausible that the citizens can force regime change without outside military intervention. On the other hand, perilous as fighting any war on the ground in populated areas might be, the bigger threat keeping us from taking that next step likely isn’t anywhere near Venezuela.
Venezuela’s foreign policy isn’t Venezuela’s. It’s China’s, Cuba’s, Iran’s, North Korea’s but most of all Russia’s. Taking military action against the Maduro regime means risking corresponding military action being taken by anyone of them. And it doesn’t have to be in Venezuela either. Russia could occupy Syria. Iran could challenge Israel. North Korea could take on South Korea, etc. That’s first and foremost in this conversation. But even setting that aside for a minute... Let’stake a lookat the Venezuelan military and discuss what we’d be up against on the ground.
First, technically every man and woman between the ages of 18-30 has to register for military service. That places the potential size of the Venezuelan military at 2.8 to 3 million. Now, clearly many if not most of those individuals, appear unlikely to report and serve Maduro at this point but that’s the view of the possible. In terms of the existing active military – we're talking about 350,000 troops. To put that into context – there were 375,000 Iraqi soldiers active at the time of the Iraq war when we took out Saddam Hussian. So, we’re talking about a military operation potentially on par with that war in terms of conflict. Additionally, from a military readiness standpoint they have a lot of equipment. Here are all of the countries that’d supplied/sold/traded Venezuela military equipment that’s still potentially in use.
Austria, Belgium, China, England, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Poland, Russia, Sweden (yes, they manufacture military equipment!) & the United States
Some of its dated, some of it current, all of it has to be accounted for in battle. So, as we weigh a yay or nay – that's the context of the conversation militarily.