2018’s Historical Midterm Elections

If you listened to my midterm election analysis at any point this cycle, you’ll likely recall this number. 92%. It was the likelihood that Democrats would win more Congressional seats than Republicans this cycle. Once again, history held. Times change, issues change, the politicians change but one distinctly American trait is our tendency to be creatures of habit. However, Republicans did perform far better than the historical averages. The President’s party lost an average 4 Senate seats and 30 seats in the House in midterms. Republicans added four Senate seats and avoided a wipeout in the House. It was the 6th best overall performance in a midterm Election cycle since the advent of the two-party system for the President’s party.  

To put it another way, President Trump/Republicans performed better than 85% of midterm elections historically do. It’s why when media/politicos balk at the notion that Republicans fared well on Tuesday because they lost control of the House, they’re ignorant, wrong or both. It’s an occasion where losing well equals a win.

Photo by: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

 

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