1st look at the 2020 Presidential Election – President Trump’s odds of winning re-election
Bottom Line: I first addressed this topic briefly about three weeks ago, mainly because I was annoyed by ignorant political analysts and clueless media types seemingly salivating about knocking off President Trump. In politics, there’s little more that I love more than soul-crushing political truth. Here’s that truth at the starting line for 2020.
The odds are that President Donald Trump will be re-elected. Why?
65% of Presidents who run for re-election win.
So, whoever runs from the left will be at a historical disadvantage from the onset. Something that’s often overlooked by media and those who oppose an incumbent President is what it would take for someone who voted for the President previously not to vote for them again. It has happened of course. George H.W. Bush’s “read my lips no new taxes” promise that he broke led to Ross Perot running, splitting the vote and allowing Bill Clinton to win. Or in the case of a Jimmy Carter failing at pretty much everything allowing Ronald Regan to win. But if one voted for Donald Trump in 2016, why wouldn’t they vote for him in 2020? Two Supreme Court Justices, tax reform, end of ACA mandate, the lowest unemployment rate in 49 years, record low unemployment rates for all demographics except Asian and white men, the biggest increase in net take-home pay in 32 years, significant foreign policy progress including the near eradication of ISIS.
Arguably, he’s in a better position to win new voters over as opposed to losing previous support. That’ll be the key to 2020. Not who the Democratic candidate happens to be but how we view President Trump’s performance by the election. Presidential Elections are always a referendum on the current President. A lot can change in two years but after less than two years his record is truly as impressive as any in at least modern political history.
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