Florida's Ms. Independents Look Like Democrats

Here's today's story and my take on it. From the Tampa Bay Times, Dem poll: With big advantage among independents, Andrew Gillum leads Ron DeSantis.

Last Friday when I interviewed Andrew Gillum and indicated he had momentum consolidating undecided voters and could surprise a lot of people on Tuesday night, not many took it seriously. Imminently after the win Tuesday night I heard from conservatives who were thrilled DeSantis was matched up with a Bernie Sanders styled Socialist, thinking he’d be easier to beat. The past couple of days I’ve shared information laying the groundwork for some of what we’re now starting to see. Gillum’s for real and so are his chances. 

I’m not going to make more out of one initial poll than needs to be made, but here’s the thing. The internals in the poll jive with all of my previous research. On Tuesday, one of my stories discussed the top issues for Florida’s voters and here’s an excerpt from my story: 

Two points are clear. Immigration and economic concerns are top issues for all voters regardless of political persuasion, so candidates who are strongest on those issues in the minds of voters should be best positioned today. Something else that’s notable is that a “moderate” voter looks an awful lot like a Democrat in this research. That may matter less today as non-party affiliated voters won’t be deciding who will represent Democrats and Republicans in November. But, if it held it could be decisive in many key races in November. 

So, what we’re seeing with this initial general election polling is exactly what my contextual research showed was probable. I have no clue what’s going to happen in November at this point, aside from Democrats gaining seats Congressionally. Florida’s race for Governor is a legitimate toss-up. What’s more is that in this poll President Trump’s approval rating, 46% is higher than DeSantis’s initial support 43%. So, DeSantis still has work to do to simply win over Floridians happy with President Trump’s performance let alone winning the election outright. 

That also reminds me of something I mentioned prior to Tuesday’s elections. All elections have consequences and while my politics lean right, I always want the best possible candidates to win in both parties because they’ll always be a winner and we live in a time in which socialists are winning elections in the Democratic party.  

As of now, there’s a legitimate chance that a Bernie Sanders style socialist will be our next governor. You especially don’t want to take that thought for granted in November.  

Photo By: Getty Images



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