We’re down to the home stretch in advance of Tuesday’s election. It’s important to remember that polling not only becomes more accurate as we close in on an election but it’s often not just a reflection of how people intend to vote. For many respondents, it's how they voted. So far, well over a million Floridians have already cast ballots and they’ve officially voiced their opinions.
Both parties have had wide-open races this year and I've never seen a high-profile race on both sides this late into the cycle. Starting with Democrats here's where we stand, an average of the most recent accredited polling, using only the three most recent polls.
- Graham: 26%
- Gillum: 22%
- Levine: 21%
- Greene: 12%
- King: 6%
- Others/Undecided: 12%
A lot changed in a few weeks. Gwynn Graham still seems to hold a small advantage but otherwise this race appears to have been shaken up considerably. Overwhelmingly, the biggest beneficiary of previously undecided voters has been Andrew Gillum. He’s consistently been running 4th in this race once Greene entered it but has surged to pull into a status that could place him as the top challenger to Graham.
Especially, if he continues to win over undecided voters given that around 12% of voters are potentially still in play. At this point, it looks like Jeff Greene and Chris King would require a massive last-minute catalyst to potentially contend but virtually anything is possible for Gillum, Graham and Levine.
On the Republican side of the aisle, the polls have been all over the place over the past couple of weeks and the way the last three have shaken out. Well, there’s a significant change.
- Putnam: 40%
- DeSantis: 38%
- Other candidates: 9%
- Undecided: 13%
Three weeks ago, at the previous update, Ron DeSantis held a six-point advantage. Now that we’re getting down to the wire we’re seeing Putnam showing an ever so slight lead. There are huge wild cards in play here. First, 9% of voters are pledging support for other candidates led by Bob White and Bruce Nathan. Will that hold? Will any of them opt for either DeSantis or Putnam in the booth? As for the undecided voters, they are at 13%. The only thing that’s certain at this point is that there isn’t a clear-cut front-runner and Putnam’s been able to stage a comeback by winning over some previously undecided voters.
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