A couple of questions before I get started.
Do you think more Americans identify as Democrats today compared to Election Day 2016?
Do you think fewer Americans identify as Republicans?
Once again, media created perceptions that aren't probably real. According to the latest party ID figures nationally from Gallup, 27% are registered Republicans, 29% Democrats and 43% Independents.
Currently, only two points separate partisans. But how does that compare to Election Day 2016? Republicans were still at 27%, while Democrats were at 31% and Independents at 36%.
How does that wash with your perceptions of what's changed politically over the past couple of years? There's a meaningful takeaway or two here. First, President Trump's popularity among Republicans has enabled the GOP to hold onto those who already were identifying with the party. The inverse hasn't been true. The Democrat's strategy to simply "resist" President Trump to the extent has actually turned off 2% of those who previously identified with the party.
It's too soon to suggest that Democrats missed the boat heading into the midterms. But, as a reminder, the average performance for Democrats in this cycle should be gaining four seats in the Senate and 30 seats in the House. In yesterday's update, I was showing how Democrats are underperforming on both sides of Congress. These party identification numbers illustrate part of the reason why. People, especially new voters, have become far more likely to not identify with either party, a seven-point increase, over 2016.
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