In the first part of today's story, I identified three US House races in South Florida that are likely to tell the tale of who controls the house in 2019. Our heavyweight senate race is likely a tell in the Senate as well.
First, let's look at US House control. Three of the most vulnerable Republican seats in Congress are in South Florida. Florida's 18th, 26th and 27th Districts. Here's the bottom line. In virtually all early modeling that I've started to do, there are very strong outcomes nationally tied to the results in these three races. These are different scenarios of what that looks like. First one, Democrats are almost certain to pick up one of these seats with the 27th being the most vulnerable of the three for Republicans with the retirement of Ros-Lehtinen. Another scenario, Democrats pick up at least two of the three there's over a 90% chance they'll control the house next year. If Democrats pick up all three there's virtually a 100% chance they'll control the house. However, should Republicans hold onto at least two of these three there's a 76% chance they'll retain control in the house. Lastly, should Republicans hold onto all three there's a virtual 100% chance they'll retain control.
In Florida's senate race is a different version of a similar thing. What's different about this conversation is that Democrats already hold the seat. So, winning is simply retention rather than advancement but the implications nationally are similar to the South Florida House races. If Rick Scott beats Bill Nelson, there's a near 100% chance that Republicans will retain control of the Senate. However, if Bill Nelson defeats Rick Scott in this race, there's a near 50-50 chance that Democrats would gain control of the Senate.
What I've found by digging in deeper into these races is that the info I've uncovered matches the perception that exists. That it'll be easier for Democrats to take the House than the Senate this year but that it is very much possible for them to take both. It's also clear that as Florida and specifically, South Florida goes, so will likely the control of both nationally. I'll have a lot more on these races as we get closer. As the landscape crystalizes it's becoming increasingly clear that how we vote will impact not just our districts and state but also the country as a whole.
Photo By: Curbelo's office