South Florida's Mid-term Political Landscape Pt. 1

2018 is anything but a typical midterm election cycle in South Florida. We have a wide-open Governor's race, in addition to a high-profile Senate race that might determine the outcome of Senate control nationally. Speaking of congressional control three South Florida races might determine who controls the US House. 

In my midterm elections update, I break down the historical picture of what typically happens in midterm cycles and what the current landscape is shaping up to reflect. As we get closer to our August primaries, data becomes more prevalent and relevant. Additionally, most states have already had their primaries at which point polling becomes far more reliable. Something has increasingly become pretty clear over the past month. Despite the big headlines and stories of the day, the political mood of the country hasn't moved much. Over the past six weeks, we've not had a move of greater than two points in average pollings. That seems to suggest that unless there's a massive event that happens between today and Election Day, our political stage is set up. It's one in which it's generally better to be a Democrat than not, sticking with midterm election history, but doesn't quite resemble a wave type of an election. 

In a wave election, Democrats would easily regain control of the house, despite the Senate map, which is favorable for Republicans this year. They would be able to gain control as well. Instead, we have a landscape that's likely to produce a narrow margin of control to either party as Democrats are going to gain seats. You can look right at Florida in terms of what congressional control will look like in 2019. As often has been the case over the past 26 years, as Florida goes, so goes the country. Keeping that in mind, I've started modeling outcomes for this cycle over the past two weeks. There are three races that are telling in South Florida and one big Senate race. Those races are the house races in three districts represented by Republicans. Florida's 18th, Brian Mast, Florida's 26th, Carlos Curbelo and Florida's 27th Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. 

As for Florida's Senate race, currently represented by Democrat Bill Nelson. In the second part of today's story, I'll break out the national implications for congressional control based on the outcome of these races. 

Photo By: Getty Images North America

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