We're now under six weeks away from Florida's primaries which means that we're starting to get down to crunch time. Floridians are notoriously late to engaging the primary process, this year appears to be no exception. First up let's take a look at Florida's Gubernatorial races.
Both parties have had wide-open races this year and I've never seen a high-profile race so wide-open on both sides this late into the cycle. Starting with the Democrats here's where we stand with an average of the most recent accredited polling: First, Graham with 23%, Levine: 21%, Greene: 12%, Gillum: 9%, King: 5%, Others/Undecided: 30%.
Without a doubt, the momentum candidate in this race is Jeff Greene. There've been four accredited polls in this race since he entered, and he's gained in each one. What's clear is that the biggest potential loser from Greene's momentum is Philip Levine. In the same four polls since Greene entered the race Levine has dropped 8 points. It's still a wide-open race, 30% of Florida's Democrats still are undecided and the leader is averaging at 23%.
On the Republican side of the aisle, there's a momentum candidate as well and it's Ron DeSantis. Using the three accredited polls that have been released since the debate it's crystal clear who benefited the most from that forum. In the three polls prior to that debate Ron DeSantis was averaging 18% with Adam Putnam averaging 33%. Here's where they stand today: DeSantis: 42%, Putnam: 28%, Others/Undecided: 30%.
DeSantis has gained 24 points since the debate and Putnam has lost 5. Much like the Democrats, there are still nearly 30% of voters in play. So, anything can happen but if Florida's Agriculture Secretary is going to be Florida's Republican representative for Governor he's got to shift the momentum fast. I've mentioned from the beginning that the most difficult race Putnam would likely run this year would be the primary against DeSantis.
Last but not least, Florida's race for Senate. I still feel compelled to point out that we still have to clear the primaries before this is the official match-up. That pre-primary polling for general elections isn't highly predictive but here's the latest accredited polling in the match-up between Governor Rick Scott and Senator Bill Nelson: Nelson: 46%, Scott: 46%, Undecided/third party 8%.
Rick Scott is our Governor. Clearly, anything significant within our state that requires his attention is a wild card. None the least of which would be a hurricane for example. These are additional reasons it's important to not get ahead of ourselves in this race. But, it's probably safe to say this will be a close race one way or another.
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