The REAL Unemployment Rate This Monday

After September's hurricanes brought us the weakest month of the year for jobs, October helped us get back on track. 

The snap-back to outstanding growth is confirmation of the economy's momentum and a clear indication that the hurricanes were bumps in the economic road - not road blocks. 

  • Headline unemployment rate 4.1 percent (down .1 percent)  
  • 261,000 jobs added in October 
  • 90,000 jobs added through positive revisions for prior months 
  • The net 351,000 jobs added was the best in a single month since May of 2010 

Top industries for hiring:   

  1. Food service (+89,000 jobs) 
  2. Professional & business services (+50,000 jobs) 
  3. Manufacturing (+24,000 jobs)   

After a huge decline in employment in food service due to the hurricanes - we saw that most of those jobs came back in October. Outside of that, we experienced a surge in business service jobs & manufacturing passing healthcare for job growth! Who would have placed that bet a year ago? 

Now for the real unemployment rate: 

  • Actual: 7.9 percent 
    • Down from 9.5 percent (year over year improvement of 17 percent)  

So here are three relevant points: 

  1. When the long-term unemployed & marginally employed are factored in - the real unemployment remains nearly double the base reported rate but is now at it's lowest level in 11 years!
  2. 1.6 million are long-term unemployed, 4.8 million are underemployed (part-time seeking full-time work) & 1.5 million are marginally attached to the workforce  
  3. 3. The base unemployment rate is the best in 16 years & 11 months! The real unemployment rate is the best it's been in 11 years! In part two we'll take a look at the demographics of the unemployed...

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