Today’s Entry: I am very curious what your thoughts are and if you would include in a story in the coming days the mechanics of Palm Beach County becoming more republican, including a more evenly split county commission. I am wondering if even David Kerner's endorsement of Ron Desantis moved votes, or if it was more just Mr. Kerner's early observation of the changing tides of Palm Beach and him switching to follow where the county residents are going? Curious what your thoughts on all this will be?
Bottom Line: There’s no doubt that lifelong Democrat and current Palm Beach County Commissioner (former mayor) Dave Kerner’s endorsement of Governor DeSantis was at least a sign of what was to come in Palm Beach County this election cycle. A lot of locals voting for Republicans for the first time. As I’d mentioned in the immediate aftermath of the election, while Miami Dade breaking for DeSantis by double-digits in a record setting cycle for Republicans generally in our state’s largest county was a huge deal... That possibility had been long discussed heading into the cycle. In every wave election there are always outcomes that seemingly no one was expecting which occur. Three of Florida’s four largest counties, all previously Democrat strongholds, breaking for DeSantis and Republicans generally qualifies, but the most surprising was Palm Beach County. A county which had never voted for Republicans in statewide races until now. To that end your point about what happened down ballot is an important storyline as well. But first let’s start with DeSantis’ margin in each of these counties.
- Palm Beach: DeSantis +3%
- Hillsborough: DeSantis +9%
- Miami-Dade: DeSantis +11%
While there have been longer term trends in play in these counties, the flip within them in just four years is remarkable. Here’s how they voted for governor just four years ago:
- Palm Beach: Gillum +17%
- Hillsborough: Gillum +9%
- Miami-Dade: Gillum +21%
That’s a massive 18-point turnaround in Hillsborough, 20-point turnaround in Palm Beach County and 32-point move in Miami-Dade. Those kinds of swings in large counties from one cycle to the next are unheard of in our state or any other for that matter. Now specific to your question about Dave Kerner’s potential influence on Palm Beach County’s results. This breakout likely illustrates the answer. The huge swing extended well beyond the Palm Beaches and was much larger than him. But yes, it’s clear his support of DeSantis was representative of other Democrats crossing the isle this cycle.
While much was rightfully made about Republicans holding a voter registration advantage in our state for the first time in history, that’s still far from the case in any of these counties. Republicans make up only 31% of the voters in Hillsborough and 29% in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach County. With Republicans not even making up a third of these counties it’s obvious large margins of NPAs broke for Republicans, but also necessarily many Democrats, a la Kerner as well. During the cycle I noticed many of my neighbors which have historically and loyally supported Democrats with signs in their yards didn’t put any up this cycle. After the election one of them went out of their way to tell me they’d voted for DeSantis. But as mentioned in today’s note it didn’t stop there either. Yes, two of the three Palm Beach County Commission races up for election broke for Republicans and the entire Florida cabinet was supported by these three counties as well. In fact, the only statewide race which didn’t break for a Republican in the trio was the Senate race in Palm Beach County in which Demings beat out Rubio by less than a half percent.
The performance down ballot is a potential sign that what happened in traditionally blue counties in Florida this cycle might have some staying power in future elections – which now becomes one of the biggest questions. What’s next? Are Hillsborough, Miami Dade and Palm Beach really “red” counties now or was this a one cycle phenomenon? The truth is probably somewhere in between. Meaning these are likely now swing counties inside of what has become a red state. One of my hopes going forward is that the progress made on the right in Florida’s blue counties will help with candidate recruitment and the extent of challenges for incumbents in local elections going forward. There’s no doubt a political transformation is underway in South Florida, and Florida generally.
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