Political Narrative Busters

One of the most pervasive narratives since the SCOTUS ruling on Roe, is that Democrats have seized momentum. A combination of what are commonly described by mainstream media outlets as weak Republican Senate candidates in key states, combined with a belief that abortion on demand will win the day for Democrats has been the theme. And to be sure, as I’ve regularly depicted in my midweek midterm election update, Republicans generally have seemed to struggle in recent months to capitalize on President Biden’s historically poor approval ratings and overwhelming disapproval for the direction of the country. That’s played out in special elections, that’s played out in polls – but where it hasn’t played out is in Florida. As I mentioned in the wake of Florida’s extraordinary primary elections, where Republicans outvoted Democrats by over 200,000 votes – despite having no high-profile top-of-the-ticket races, Florida was a narrative buster. When issues were on the ballot, as opposed to just candidates, votes broke in a way which pointed to potential history in the making this fall. Historically 95% of school board candidates win reelection, 25 of Governor DeSantis’ 30 endorsed school board candidates won. And that’s the broader point here. If Republican candidates run on the issues - the economy, education, the lockdowns, the mandates – etc. Narratives that Democrats have seized momentum will likely be busted. I’ve yet to see anyone pay the bills with an abortion, and most Americans don’t believe they should happen after 15 weeks anyway which is Florida’s standard and the most common nationally. And speaking of narrative busters – there were a couple of polls from a top-rated pollster that could signal times may be about to change post-Labor Day for Democrats. Nate Silver’s 538 ranks pollster Trafalgar as an A-. Their average historical polling miss has only been 1.3% - which is rather remarkable. And the two polls they conducted over the weekend which to point the potential for some serious narrative busting came out of two of the most reliably blue states in the country. New York and Washington. In the New York Governor’s race Trafalgar shows the incumbent Democrat Hochul, who most recently campaigned on the concept of Republicans within the state going to Florida because they aren’t welcome there any longer, polling only 5-points ahead of the Republican Zeldin. In the Washington Senate Race, Trafalgar has incumbent Democrat Patty Murray only up three. How big of a deal is this potentially? Murray won her previous race by 18-points. And Cuomo won the previous election by 22. If these polls, from one of the best in the business, are even close to being right, recent political narratives are about to be busted across the country bigtime.