Today’s entry: Brian – your report on Biden’s polling numbers was as fascinating as it was eye-opening. I’m surprised other conservative commentators haven’t picked up on what you’ve uncovered. Other than age, is there any additional information available that might provide more insight? I agree with your assessment that this moment in time could be a generational opportunity to reach younger voters who feel betrayed by Biden/Democrats.
Bottom Line: First to catch those who might have missed Friday’s show up on what we’re talking about here. In Friday’s Q&A, I discussed President Biden’s approval rating. While researching I discovered "President Biden’s approval ratings are now worst among voters 18-34, his approval rating stands at 35%."
As part of that finding, I remarked that I’d literally never seen a Democrat president’s approval ratings worst among the youngest voters and suggested that there could be a Reagan-like generational opportunity for conservatives to reach young voters.
First, there’s been a change since my reporting on Friday. President Biden’s average approval rating among 18–34-year-old voters has fallen another point. That’s especially notable as Biden won these voters by 20% over Trump less than a year ago. This means that about 25% of younger voters who pulled the trigger for Biden now wish they hadn’t - that’s huge. As for the deeper demographic dive into these disenchanted voters, here’s Biden’s approval rating for those 18-34 based on additional factors:
Gender
- Female: 37%
- Male: 32%
Education
- Non-College Grad: 32%
- College Grad: 38%
- Postgraduate: 46%
Party ID
- Democrat: 63%
- Independent: 21%
- Republican: 2%
Race
- Black: 49%
- Hispanic/Latino: 41%
- White: 29%
- All others: 43%
This information shows other notable dynamics in play. Literally, the only subsect of 18–34-year-old voters President Biden isn’t underwater with is self-identified Democrats. A group that only makes up about a quarter of these voters. To give you an idea of how these voters identify politically.
As you can tell a majority of younger voters don’t specifically identify with either major political party and what this means in context is that he’s only in positive territory with a little over a quarter of younger voters. Note that a majority of young voters identify as independents and that President Biden’s approval rating among them is only 21%. Clearly, an opportunity is there for conservatives right now. But policy matters most. It’s possible to flip voters to win an election that’s a referendum on an unpopular president but to truly win hearts and minds that have a generational impact it must be about leading on policy and enacting that policy given an opportunity. The last time there’s evidence of a movement that had a generational impact for the Republican party among young voters was with Reagan in the ’80s. The opportunity is there for Republicans right now. The question will be whether Republicans can rise to the occasion to lead as he did on policy.
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