Warnings Dropped for Upper Keys as Fred Remains Disorganized

MIAMI -- Tropical Depression Fred remains disorganized and forecasters have pulled back some of their warnings for Florida. The tropical storm warning for the Middle and Upper Keys has been discontinued, and so has the tropical storm watch for Southwest Florida. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge. Warnings are possible for Northwest Florida Saturday as Fred is expected to make landfall near Pensacola as a storm. Heavy rains may still be a possibility for the Florida west coast this weekend.

Meantime, Tropical Depression Seven continues moving quickly in the far Atlantic toward the eastern Caribbean.

Here are the latest updates on both from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number 18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021

1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL

CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.7N 80.6W

ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA

ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys

from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued,

including Florida Bay.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been

discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the

next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida

Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred. Watches could be

required for portions of the Florida panhandle on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible

inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your

local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred

was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. The

depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A

west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight. A turn

toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general

motion should continue through early Monday. On the forecast track,

Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central

Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on

Saturday, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday

night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday. After

that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a

tropical storm again by late Saturday or Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and

on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts:

Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8

inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.

Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of

5 inches.

Tonight through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across

the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,

with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead

to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new

minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate

ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.

From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into

inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central

Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the

area.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the

warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday.

SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across

portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through

tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern

Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of

Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from

your local weather office for more details.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting Saturday

afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.

BULLETIN

Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021

1100 PM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W

ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat

* Saba and Sint Eustatius

* Sint Maarten

* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* British Virgin Islands

* U.S. Virgin Islands

* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, as well as the

Dominican Republic, should monitor the progress of this system.

Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for these

areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven

was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 53.8 West. The

depression is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A

motion towards the west or west-northwest with a gradual decrease

in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the

forecast track, the center of the depression is forecast to move

over the Leeward Islands Saturday night, over the Virgin Islands and

Puerto Rico on Sunday, and then over the Dominican Republic on

Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and

the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tomorrow.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key messages for Tropical Depression Seven can be found in

the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and

WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at

www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning

area over the Leeward Islands by Saturday night or early Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over the Virgin Islands and

Puerto Rico beginning on Sunday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall

amounts Saturday into Monday:

Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6

inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban

flooding.

Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to

flash, urban, and small stream flooding as well as potential

mudslides.

Photo: National Hurricane Center


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