We are under four days from Election Day. Floridians certainly haven’t waited until Election Day to have their voices heard. Record votes by mail and early votes have been pouring in and it’s now likely that more Floridians will have voted both by mail and early in person than on Election Day itself. Should that occur, it would be a first for Florida in any election cycle.
With this weekly update on Florida’s election landscape, some of the notable takeaways include: Over 7.3 million votes have been cast. Democrats have outvoted Republicans by 631,118 votes by mail but conversely, Republicans have outvoted Democrats by 426,841 votes in early voting. Furthermore, Republicans outvoted Democrats by over 41,635 votes on Wednesday and Democrats have outvoted Republicans by 204,277 total ballots thus far.
Democrats have successfully executed a strong vote by mail campaign flipping the script on Republicans who led in votes by mail in the 2016 election. Likewise, Republicans have continued to build a substantial lead in early voting turnout. This is the reverse of what we saw four years ago. Republicans have now outvoted Democrats for nine consecutive days and continue to reduce the deficit in voter turnout. The number I’m watching is 209,450 entering Election Day. Based on history and GOP turnout out trends, if Democrats lead by more than 209,450 votes cast by Election Day, it’ll likely bode well for Democrats. The inverse would be true for Republicans.
Now, let's look at Congressional races. South Florida’s most hotly contested Congressional races are all tossups based on an average of polling. In Florida’s 18th, Brian Mast is showing a 3-point lead over Pam Keith. In Florida’s 26th, the race appears to be about tied between Debbie Mucarsal-Powell & Carlos Gimenez. In Florida’s 27th, Donna Shalala is showing a 2-point advantage over Maria Elvira Salazar.
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