History has a way of repeating itself so at the onset of this series we first need to account for the type of cycle this one happens to be. It’s a reelection bid for an incumbent Republican President. In these cycles, the average outcome shows that there's no net change in the Senate and Republicans going nine seats in the House.
Republicans currently control the Senate with 53 seats. Should the typical outcome occur for this type of cycle, Republicans would retain control of the Senate. Likewise, even if Republicans were to gain the average of nine seats typically gained during this type of cycle, Democrats who have a majority in the House by 38 seats, would retain control. We enter this election cycle with the status quo, split control of Congress, being the most likely outcome this year.
If there’s to be a change in congressional control Democrats will need to net four total senate seats if President Trump is reelected or three is Joe Biden is elected. A total of 35 senate seats are up for election this year, 23 are held by Republicans, meaning there’s more opportunity for Democrats to potentially flip seats than for Republicans to gain ground. Of course, in the House, all seats are up for election every two years.
There were 49 races in the House decided by fewer than ten points in 2018. Of those, President Trump fared better than the 2018 Republicans in 38 districts. This includes Trump outright winning 17 districts won by Democrats in 2018. These represent solid pickup opportunities for Republicans this year. With the cycle naturally benefiting Republicans by 9 seats and with President Trump currently polling an average of 1% behind in his final pace in swing states with four years ago, Republicans are currently pacing a gain of 15 to 24 seats this year. With two special election wins thus far in 2020, Republicans now need to flip only 17 seats to gain control of the House. This week’s pacing is two seats worse for Republicans than a week ago. At the low end of the curve, they’d narrowly miss out on control of the in the House. The mid to upper end of the curve would have Republicans narrowly gaining control of the House.
As for the Senate, Republicans have historically performed 2.6% better than Congressional polls in cycles with an incumbent Republican president running for re-election. If we apply that to an average of current senate polling, Democrats would gain three seats, one more than last week. Were that to occur the winner of the Presidency would determine control of the Senate. Putting the Anatomy of a Swing State analytics together with this story creates a scenario where President Trump is narrowly re-elected, Republicans narrowly win the House and Senate. This is the closest all races have looked since I began tracking a month ago.
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