The calendar tells us that we're halfway through hurricane season. But, the calendar and the timing of tropical systems are two different animals. As we get ready for whatever September has in store for us this year, we can take solace in what we aren’t facing which we were a year ago. A year ago, we were staring down the threat from hurricane Dorian as we entered September. As for September’s hurricane history, it's is notable for two reasons. It's the most active month of hurricane season and the peak day of hurricane season is September 10th. By using historical storm activity as a guide, here's how much of the season is really left.
Since tracking of the Atlantic Hurricane season began in 1851, 35% of all tropical storms have formed during September and 40% of all hurricanes have formed during the month. On average 3.5 tropical storms and 2.5 hurricanes have formed in September. In reality, as we enter the second half of hurricane season 33% based on hurricane development and 38% based on tropical storm development is how much of the season is really behind us.
So, we've got most of the season ahead of us still but once we cross the mid-point of September, the odds shift the other way quickly. Hopefully, this season is the inverse of last year. Last year we entered September with only four named storms but ended with 18. This year we enter with 13. Fingers crossed.
Photo by: NOAA via Getty Images