Theories are just that until they aren’t. In the case of the polls and Trumpers, whether the year was 2016 or 2020, it appears as though understated Trump voters in polls are the reality. It’s not complicated. Who tends to make the most noise politically around you, Democrats or Republicans? Who is broadly supported by most news outlets, celebrities, and pop culture generally? How are you, as a Trump supporter made to feel by society around you? Now for many, the answer is no different. There’s no doubt the many Trump supporters are as demonstrative as Republicans have ever seen. This has been evidenced with record-high approval from President Trump among Republicans, frequently above 90%. But we’re well aware that many, perhaps you, don’t feel able to express your support without fear of backlash or retribution. And that carries over into other aspects of life. Like for example avoiding political conversation and a lack of willingness to answer pollsters frankly.
In 2016, out of the ten national accredited pollsters releasing Election Day polls, Donald Trump outperformed eight of them. When 80% of the polls understate the support of the winning candidate there’s definitely something more to the story. While poor sampling is part of the equation for some pollsters, it’s evident that even some of the people surveyed voted differently than they suggested to the pollsters.
Over the weekend CloudResearch provided the deepest look into how many voters won’t talk about who they’re supporting. In a study of voters, they found that 6.3% more Republicans won’t share their true political support with others than Democrats. Similarly, 5.1% more Independents than Democrats won’t share their true support.
This presents a compelling dynamic that shows why many polls seemed to miss Trump's support, especially in key states he won like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2016 and likely is repeating this year. It also shows that those most vocal about their politics are Democrats, followed by Independents and Republicans being the most reluctant. In other words, in this instance, perception meets reality and it’s likely unstated Trump support isn’t a theory but fact. Incidentally, this phenomenon could also be making the race look much closer than it actually is. In 2016 President Trump won with 306 Electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 227. President Trump is polling about 2% better in swing states today than four years ago.
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