It’s been a year unlike any other which is leading to an election cycle unlike any other. This has included a record number of Floridian’s requesting ballots to vote by mail for the August primaries in advance of the August 18th Election Day. How significant is the difference? Consider that in the August 2018 primaries a total of 1.35 million votes by mail were received by the state. Through the weekend 2.1 million had already rolled in, easily a new record. In fact, 80% of all votes cast in advance of Election Day have been voted by mail. This opens up the biggest question mark of all. How will in-person turnout be during the pandemic? With all votes received by the state through weekend, here’s turnout based on voter registration:
- Democrat: 48%
- Republican: 39%
- NPA/Other: 13%
Republicans gained ground through early voting over the weekend, though they are still under-performing Democrats significantly in turnout heading into Election Day. It’s clear the aggressive vote by mail campaign by Democrats is paying off. If Republicans are going to be competitive in turnout for Tuesday’s primary elections, they’re going to have to turn out in big numbers on Election Day. What we’re seeing play out is a bit of a reversal from the norm. Historically Republicans have led in votes by mail while Democrats have led in early voting. Republicans typically win in turnout on Election Day. What’s happening here is also highly instructive among party partisans as they attempt to best plan to activate their voters for November’s elections.
Photo by: JASON REDMOND/AFP via Getty Images