This year is leading to an election cycle unlike any other. Including a record number of Floridian’s requesting ballots to vote by mail for the August primaries in advance of the August 18th Election. How significant is the difference? Consider that in the August 2018 primaries a total of 1.35 million votes by mail were received by the state. As of Thursday, 1.8 million had already rolled in, that's more than the total from the entire 2018 election. In fact, 85% of all votes cast so far have been voted by mail. Early voting is active statewide through Sunday. This opens up the biggest question mark of all. How will in-person turnout be during the pandemic? With all votes received by the state through Tuesday, here’s turnout based on voter registration:
- Democrat: 48%
- Republican: 38%
- NPA/Other: 13%
Democrats maintained a double-digit advantage on Thursday as Republicans have significantly underperformed with votes by mail while maintaining an edge in early voting thus far. Republicans are slowly making up ground as Democrat’s vote by mail slows down and the Republican ground game in early voting continues to provide an advantage. It’s clear the aggressive vote by mail campaign by Democrats is paying off. If Republicans are going to be competitive in turnout for the August 18th elections, they’re going to have to grow their advantage in early voting and turnout in big numbers on Election Day. What we’re seeing play out is a bit of a reversal from the norm. Historically Republicans have led in votes by mail while Democrats have led in early voting. Republicans typically win in turnout on Election Day. What’s happening here is also highly instructive among party partisans as they attempt to best plan to activate their voters for November’s elections.
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