It’s been a year unlike any other which is leading to an election cycle unlike any other as well. This includes a record number of Floridian’s requesting ballots to vote by mail for the August primaries in advance of the August 18th Election Day. How significant is the difference? Consider that in the August 2018 primaries a total of 1.35 million votes by mail were received by the state. As of Tuesday, 1.16 million had already rolled in. It’s clear record votes by mail will be received for our August primaries. Of course, those aren’t the only votes which are rolling in prior to Election Day. Early voting is currently underway in 28 of Florida’s 67 counties including Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. This opens up the biggest question mark of all. How will in-person turnout be during the pandemic? With all votes received by the state through Tuesday, here’s turnout based on voter registration:
- Democrat:48%
- Republican:37%
- NPA/Other:15%
What we’re seeing in the earliest votes received is a reversal of what occurred last election cycle. In 2018, Republicans led Democrats in votes by mail with Democrats holding the advantage with early voting. The inverse has happened thus far. Democrats hold a vote by mail advantage while Republicans are leading in early voting turnout. Democrats hold a sizable advantage overall on back of a strong vote by mail response to date and fewer than half of the state’s counties having started early voting. What’s clear at this stage in the cycle, is that Republicans will have to outperform their normal early voting patterns and match their typical Election Day turnout advantage if they’re to be competitive in the August 18th primaries. What’s happening here is also highly instructive among party partisans as they attempt to best plan to activate their voters for November’s elections.
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