Today is the biggest day of the primary cycle. Fourteen states and two territories have their say in the Presidential primary process. This includes the two largest states in the country, Texas and California. The Democrat’s road to the nomination is a delegate race to 1990 pledged Delegates. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are out of the race so this is where candidates stand today.
- Sanders:60
- Biden:54
- Warren:8
There are 1,357 pledged delegates up for grabs today. That’s more than will be available in all remaining contests in March, including Florida. By the end of today, 38% of all available delegates will be allocated in the Democrat’s race. So, what’s likely to happen? In an average of the most recent polling here’s the scorecard:
- Sanders:29%
- Biden:23%
- Bloomberg:16%
On the surface, it would appear that Sanders is set for a significant win today. That may well happen but Biden is up 4% since South Carolina and is showing some new momentum. If Biden can consolidate most of the Buttigieg and Klobuchar supporters and build on his momentum from South Carolina, he has a chance today. What I continue to watch is the percentage of the leader. If Biden has a strong showing today, it may well make a contested convention. There’s no reason to believe Bernie would leave the race, nor that his supporters would leave him, even if Biden were to gain front-runner status. The other interesting dynamics are Bloomberg’s and Warren’s supporters. They both are potential foils to the front-runners. Bloomberg’s supporters are more likely to break for Biden if he weren’t in the race, while Warren’s are more likely to break for Bernie.
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