Well, it does look like we have definitive Nevada Caucus results prior to Iowa’s. However, it’s not without controversy. While it’s clear that Bernie Sanders was the winner and we have a front-runner in him, it’s a bit chaotic in the battle behind him. Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden’s campaigns have cited numerous irregularities across the state and believe their support was under-reported. While that dust needs to settle and be sorted out, we still don’t have 100% reporting two days later. There were 36 pledged delegates up for grabs in Nevada, Sanders got 13, Biden got two and Buttigieg one. That’s still fewer than half of the pledged delegates having been allocated.
Meanwhile, no other candidates won delegates in Nevada. This resets the race a bit as well, given the narrative that Warren was perceived to have had a good debate performance, and Klobuchar was perceived to be on the rise after the first two states. None of that translated in Nevada. As for Biden, he desperately needed a better performance after fourth and fifth place finishes in the first two states and he got it. Although, his distant 2nd place finish only has him further off of the delegate pace needed to win without a contested convention.
Then there’s the wild card, Bloomberg. He wasn’t on the ballot in Nevada which is why he didn’t place but where is he in this race really? What impact will he have once we know? Will he simply play spoiler to Bernie’s effort to win enough delegates prior to the convention? All questions we’ll begin to sort out after Super Tuesday.
The required number of pledged delegates is 1990 and that's needed to clinch the nomination without a contested convention because 3,979 pledged delegates are available during the nomination process. Superdelegates only come into play at a contested convention.
The scorecard after Nevada based on final estimates has Sanders with37, Buttigieg with 24, Biden with 12, Warren with 8 and Klobuchar close behind with 7.
The actual leader through the first three states remains a contested convention. Bernie’s only pacing 42% of the pledged delegates despite having won the most votes in each of the first three states. This will likely place additional pressure on the lower performing candidates to drop out of the race to provide a greater opportunity for the top tier candidates to win outright. That is unless you buy into the theories that the DNC would prefer a brokered convention in which a candidate who hasn’t even run yet could emerge the winner.
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